Global Markets
| Market | Last | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|
Inflation – CPI (YoY)
Headline CPI year-over-year from FRED (CPIAUCSL). Tracks disinflation or re-acceleration.
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment rate (UNRATE). Very low levels signal tight labor; rising trend may precede slowdown.
Fed Funds Rate
Effective Fed Funds rate (FEDFUNDS) – how tight or loose policy is relative to inflation.
Yield Curve – 10Y minus 2Y
10Y minus 2Y Treasury spread. Deep inversion has historically preceded recessions.